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Date: 3 months ago   Category: Russia

The center of the political analysis promises a fast funeral of an appearance


"The policy today" has read the report of TsPA and has learned what regions support the "main" candidates where the protest activity why you shouldn't worry about a low appearance is high and why this concept soon in general will fall into oblivion. Less than a week remained till the Uniform voting day. Will choose on September 9 chapters of 22 regions and deputies in the 16th local Legislative Assemblies. The center of the political analysis has found out that certainly the major candidate or the party in power are supported the "national" republics and also in the Kemerovo, Magadan, Moscow and Rostov regions. It is said in the analytical report of the Center which was at disposal of Politika Segodnya news Agency. With high protest activity and the conflicts of elite political scientists have carried the Amur, Yaroslavl, Irkutsk, Sverdlovsk regions to regions, partly — Omsk and Zabaykalsky Krai. Predicts an appearance of TsPA around 30-40%. That is below, than at last presidential elections, but it is normal. First, decrease of the activity on polling precincts — a universal tendency. Secondly, the current elections go after a powerful presidential campaign. "People don't go on sites not because are disappointed in policy or don't trust democratic procedures, and take a break in connection with fatigue. Nevertheless, as a rule, monitor elections and are interested in their result" — it is noted in the report of the center. Besides in Russia there was a natural hierarchy: to an election of the president of the country comes more, than to elections of the governor, and at elections of the governor — it is more, than at elections to municipalities. "In a normal situation – stable political development – the level of politicization of citizens isn't really high and in general corresponds to the level of active consumers of news according to the social and political agenda (15–20% in a limit). Thus, the low (superlow) appearance should be considered result lower than this level. Everything that above – a normal appearance", - political scientists emphasize. In regions where the local political activity is high, it is worth expecting an appearance at the level of 40%, for territories with the average level of the political competition - 30-35%, for stable regions in political sense (with the popular candidate) – around 30-50%. At the same time you shouldn't determine legitimacy of elections by the number of the people who have come to sites. And the high competition can be also at low activity of electorate. "On "the most competitive" (as the liberal media reported) elections of the Mayor of Moscow in 2013 33% of voters have taken part in elections. In elections of the governor of the Irkutsk region in 2015 (the communist Sergey Levchenko) in the first round – 29%, in the second (has won at the maximum mobilization of electorate – 37%). Supercompetitive elections of the mayor of Yaroslavl Yevgeny Urlashov in 2012 against the background of a protest wave — an appearance in the first round – 40%, in the second round – 45%" — are illustrated by authors of the report. To raise an appearance experts advise by means of technical novelties or courageous decisions: it is necessary to make vote convenient. Hold up Moscow as an example. There have prolonged work of polling precincts

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